Why Abiodun May Pick APC Candidate—But Still Struggle To Win Remo By-Election

The countdown has begun.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed August 16, 2025, for the by-election in Ikenne/Sagamu/Remo North Federal Constituency.

The seat became vacant following the sudden death of Adewunmi Onanuga in January 2025.

At the time of her passing, she was serving her second term as a member of the House of Representatives and held the position of Deputy Chief Whip.

Onanuga, a prominent chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was widely known as a staunch loyalist of Governor Dapo Abiodun.

According to insiders, Governor Abiodun will play a decisive role in determining who emerges as the APC’s candidate for the upcoming by-election.

“It’s no secret within the APC. The Governor controls the party structure in Ogun State, even though he still contends with political heavyweights like former governors who command influence. Ultimately, the party he leads will select the candidate,” a party loyalist said.

However, political observers emphasize that Abiodun’s dominance does not guarantee outright success.

Multiple sources point out that, despite the election being held in his home constituency, the Governor cannot singlehandedly deliver victory for the APC.

“He needs to build alliances within other political factions in the party. Negotiations and collaboration are crucial if he genuinely wants the APC to retain the seat,” one source explained.

This need for coalition-building is even more pressing because Remo Federal Constituency is also the political base of Ladi Adebutu, the leading figure in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun State.

Abiodun and Adebutu not only share the same local government area, but the Adebutu family has long established deep roots in the community through decades of philanthropic engagement and grassroots presence.

Their rivalry has grown intensely personal, with Governor Abiodun consistently emerging victorious in both direct and indirect electoral face-offs since 2019.

While Adebutu has contested the outcomes of these polls—including the 2023 gubernatorial election, where both men were party flagbearers—his legal and political efforts to overturn the results were futile.

“This by-election offers Adebutu a unique opportunity to prove he’s the better politician. He’s determined to secure a win for the PDP and claim the moral upper hand,” a source familiar with the PDP strategy noted.

PDP insiders say Adebutu had already devised a targeted strategy around his preferred candidate well before INEC’s announcement of the election date.

In contrast, the APC is yet to present a clear direction, with many party members waiting for Governor Abiodun to signal the path forward—even as multiple aspirants have already declared interest in the ticket.