Ogun Guber: Insiders Reveal Why Tinubu Will Decide APC Candidate — Though Yayi Leads

Top-level party insiders have disclosed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will ultimately decide who flies the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial flag in Ogun State for the 2027 election — even though Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, currently leads the race in terms of grassroots popularity and early groundwork.

According to credible sources within the APC, the intense internal contest for the party’s ticket has escalated into a high-stakes power struggle marked by sectional interests and rival power blocs, particularly between Ogun West and Ogun Central.

The APC has effectively ruled out Ogun East from contention due to the incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun hailing from that region and serving two consecutive terms — an arrangement many within the party consider a closed chapter.

However, Ogun East is not entirely out of the equation. Outside the APC, the zone is making a fresh push for the governorship through Ladi Adebutu, the expected candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Adebutu, a serial contender, came close to unseating Abiodun in the last election, and party sources suggest he is already regrouping for a stronger showing in 2027.

Among APC hopefuls, Senator Adeola Yayi remains the most visible and widely supported — especially in Ogun West, a zone that has never produced a governor since the state was created in 1976. His early mobilisation, sustained political outreach, and well-funded grassroots engagement have earned him a clear advantage.

“Yayi is the only one who has run a full pre-campaign structure in all 20 local governments since 2023,” a senior party official said. “He’s put in the work and built goodwill across zones.”

Yet, despite his strong standing, powerful interest groups in Ogun Central — where an influential former Governor still commands loyalty — are quietly promoting alternative aspirants to secure a foothold.

This fragmentation, party insiders say, has created a stalemate — making it difficult for the party to reach a natural consensus without external arbitration.

With multiple camps refusing to step down, many believe that only President Tinubu has the stature and authority to settle the matter.

“This is beyond popularity now,” another party chieftain confided. “The structure of the contest has become too complex. It will take the president’s directive to forge unity and prevent an implosion.”

Tinubu, known for exerting significant influence over political processes within the APC, especially in the Southwest, is expected to play the kingmaker role when the internal jostling becomes unresolvable.

The same pattern played out in Lagos in previous cycles, where his final say determined the party’s flag bearer regardless of early frontrunners.

The outcome of the Ogun APC primary is likely to shape the party’s strength going into the general election. Insiders warn that if the eventual candidate does not emerge through a process perceived as fair and inclusive, it could spark internal rebellion and defections.

Some analysts believe that if Yayi is passed over despite his popularity and efforts, his supporters may feel alienated — a risk the APC may want to avoid, particularly given Adebutu’s growing strength in Ogun East.

“It’s not just about picking a candidate; it’s about keeping the house intact,” said a Southwest political strategist. “Whoever the president supports must be able to unify the various factions and compete effectively against a motivated

As the battle for Ogun 2027 intensifies, it is increasingly clear that beyond popularity, political calculations and centralised intervention will define who gets the APC ticket. Senator Yayi remains the man to beat — but with sectional dynamics, legacy rivalries, and presidential influence at play, the final decision rests in the hands of the man at the very top: President Bola Tinubu.