5 Towns That Could Make Or Mar Major Candidates As Osun Guber Gets Underway

As voters file out across Osun State today, Saturday, August 15, the governorship contest between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and APC candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, could ultimately be decided by the strength of the two camps in a handful of major towns.

While both camps have statewide structures, local loyalties, political machinery and the presence of third-party candidates could significantly shape the outcome in Osogbo, Ife, Ilesa, Ikire and Ejigbo.

…Osogbo: The big prize
Osogbo remains one of the biggest prizes in the election and a crucial battleground in Osun Central.

Adeleke’s camp has the advantage of incumbency and support from some traditional interests, while his Secretary to the State Government, Teslim Igbalaye, provides an important local political structure.

Oyebamiji’s APC, however, is not short of heavyweight support. Senator Ajibola Basiru, the party’s National Secretary and an Osogbo politician, remains a major figure in the APC’s local mobilisation, alongside other influential party leaders. Recent assessments have identified Osogbo and neighbouring Olorunda as potentially decisive to the Osun Central contest.

The emergence of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s ADC as a serious third force also adds another layer to the contest, particularly in areas where he retains political goodwill.
With its voting weight, Osogbo could make the difference between victory and defeat for either major contender.

…Ife: Omisore factor

In Ife, the biggest variable remains the influence of Senator Iyiola Omisore and his political network.

Omisore remains associated with the APC, and recent reports have pointed to the continuing relevance of his loyalists in the party’s structure.

Any significant movement by his political bloc could therefore affect the balance between Adeleke and Oyebamiji. Ife consequently remains one of the most difficult major towns to confidently call.

…Ilesa: Battle of political heavyweights

Ijesaland could produce one of the fiercest local contests.

Wole Oke’s role as Director-General of Oyebamiji’s campaign gives the APC candidate a heavyweight political operator with deep roots in the Ijesa area.

Adeleke’s camp, meanwhile, is relying on its own local structures and the mobilisation around its candidates and allies.

The ADC, led by former Speaker Najeem Salaam, could further complicate the arithmetic. Aregbesola’s political influence in Ijesaland also remains a factor, potentially drawing votes from the established APC base.
The consequence could be a fragmented vote in which the eventual winner benefits not necessarily by dominating Ijesaland, but by securing the largest share.

…Ikire: Hometown battle

Ikire presents another closely watched contest.

Oyebamiji’s Irewole connection gives the APC candidate a strong hometown factor. The 2022 result provides an indication of the challenge facing Adeleke: the governor lost Irewole Local Government to then-APC candidate Gboyega Oyetola.

But Senator Lere Oyewumi, himself an Ikire indigene and a prominent Adeleke ally, gives the Accord camp a strong local counterweight.

The battle therefore goes beyond party labels, with hometown sentiment, personal political networks and the governor’s incumbency all coming into play.

…Ejigbo: The third-force effect

Ejigbo could be particularly important because of the presence of former Osun State House of Assembly Speaker, Najeem Salaam, who is contesting the governorship on the ADC platform. Salaam is from Ejigbo and is widely regarded as a major grassroots politician.

His candidacy could make the town less predictable for both Adeleke and Oyebamiji, particularly if he succeeds in converting his local following into votes.

For Adeleke, a strong Salaam showing could reduce the incumbent’s margin in an area where he would otherwise seek a substantial vote advantage. For Oyebamiji, the same dynamic could also complicate the APC’s effort to consolidate opposition votes.

…The bigger picture

The Osun election remains a contest in which neither incumbency nor federal influence can, on its own, guarantee victory.

Adeleke has the advantage of occupying the Government House and is seeking another term on the Accord platform, while Oyebamiji enters the race as the APC candidate with the backing of the party’s statewide and federal structures.

But the presence of Salaam and other candidates means that vote-splitting could become critical in several parts of the state.
Ultimately, the margins in Osogbo, Ife, Ilesa, Ikire and Ejigbo may prove just as important as the statewide strength of Adeleke and Oyebamiji.

In a race widely seen as a three-way contest involving Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salaam, the candidate who best converts local alliances, hometown loyalties and political structures into actual votes could emerge with the decisive edge.